AI-Based Classification of Mild Cognitive Impairment and Cognitively Normal Patients

Background: Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) represents an intermediate stage between normal cognitive aging and Alzheimer’s Disease (AD). Early and accurate identification of MCI is crucial for implementing interventions that may delay or prevent further cognitive decline. This study aims to develop a machine learning-based model for differentiating between Cognitively Normal (CN) individuals and MCI patients using data from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). Methods: An ensemble classification approach was designed by integrating Extra Trees, Random Forest, and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) algorithms. Feature selection emphasized clinically relevant biomarkers, including Amyloid-β 42, phosphorylated tau, diastolic blood pressure, age, and gender. The dataset was split into training and held-out test sets. A probability thresholding strategy was employed to flag uncertain predictions for potential deferral, enhancing model reliability in borderline cases. Results: The final ensemble model achieved an accuracy of 83.2%, a recall of 80.2%, and a precision of 86.3% on the independent test set. The probability thresholding mechanism flagged 23.3% of cases as uncertain, allowing the system to abstain from low-confidence predictions. This strategy improved clinical interpretability and minimized the risk of misclassification in ambiguous cases. Conclusions: The proposed AI-driven ensemble model demonstrates strong performance in classifying MCI versus CN individuals using multimodal ADNI data. Incorporating a deferral mechanism through uncertainty estimation further enhances the model’s clinical utility. These findings support the integration of machine learning tools into early screening workflows for cognitive impairment.